Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 6:46 PM · Final: 6-4

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 65.8%
Books consensus 65.8%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +180 -210
DraftKings +183 -224
ESPN BET +175 -210
Fanatics +180 -220
FanDuel +180 -215
Hard Rock Bet +180 -225
Caesars +185 -225

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Red Sox −1.5
priced 49.8% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9.5
priced 46.8% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 9.5 (10 scored)
Spread by book AngelsRed Sox
BetMGM +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
BetRivers +1.5 -114 −1.5 -107
DraftKings +1.5 -112 −1.5 -108
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -113 −1.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9.5 +100 9.5 -130
BetRivers 9 -122 9 +102
DraftKings 9 -117 9 -103
ESPN BET 9.5 +105 9.5 -125
Fanatics 9 -115 9 -105
FanDuel 9.5 +104 9.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +105 9.5 -125
Caesars 9 -120 9 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.2% 65.8%
Best book price incl. vig 35.1% 67.7%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Polymarket contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Markets average 33.5% 66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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