Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 1-6

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 68.4%
Books consensus 68.4%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
BetMGM +200 -250
BetRivers +210 -250
DraftKings +207 -257
ESPN BET +200 -240
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +200 -245
Hard Rock Bet +210 -260
Caesars +205 -250

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Yankees −1.5
priced 51.7% to cover · 8 books
New York Yankees covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9.5
priced 48.3% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 9
Under 9.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book RockiesYankees
BetMGM +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
BetRivers +1.5 -107 −1.5 -114
DraftKings +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
ESPN BET +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Fanatics +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
FanDuel +1.5 -105 −1.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Caesars +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9.5 -102 9.5 -118
BetRivers 9 -121 9 +102
DraftKings 9.5 -103 9.5 -117
ESPN BET 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
Fanatics 9.5 -105 9.5 -115
FanDuel 9.5 +100 9.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
Caesars 9.5 -105 9.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.6% 68.4%
Best book price incl. vig 32.3% 70.6%
Kalshi contract price 30.8% 69.2%
Polymarket contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Markets average 31.1% 68.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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