Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 3:06 PM · Final: 0-2

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 59.3%
Books consensus 59.3%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -159 +133
DraftKings -162 +134
ESPN BET -165 +140
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -164 +138
Hard Rock Bet -170 +145
Caesars -160 +135

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blue Jays −1.5
priced 48.2% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9.5
priced 47.8% over · 8 books
Under 9.5 (2 scored)
Spread by book Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 -102 +1.5 -118
BetRivers −1.5 -103 +1.5 -120
DraftKings −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
ESPN BET −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Fanatics −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
FanDuel −1.5 -105 +1.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Caesars −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
BetRivers 9.5 -110 9.5 -110
DraftKings 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
ESPN BET 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
Fanatics 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
FanDuel 9.5 +100 9.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
Caesars 9.5 +100 9.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.3% 40.7%
Best book price incl. vig 61.4% 40.8%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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