Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 4-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -135 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -191 | −1.5 +156 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -176 | −1.5 +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +102 |
| DraftKings | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.3% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.