Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
MLB · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 7:05 PM
The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 74.6%
Books consensus 74.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Colorado Rockies | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +277 | -354 |
| ESPN BET | +280 | -360 |
| Fanatics | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +270 | -335 |
| Caesars | +278 | -355 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Colorado Rockies | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 25.4% | 74.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 26.3% | 77.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 24.9% | 75.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Markets average | 25.2% | 74.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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