Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 3-10

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 71.8%
Books consensus 71.8%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
BetMGM +240 -300
BetRivers +215 -265
DraftKings +243 -306
ESPN BET +240 -290
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +235 -290
Hard Rock Bet +240 -300
Caesars +240 -305

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Yankees −1.5
priced 54.5% to cover · 8 books
New York Yankees covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 48.4% over · 8 books
Over 8.5 (13 scored)
Spread by book RockiesYankees
BetMGM +1.5 +110 −1.5 -135
BetRivers +1.5 +102 −1.5 -124
DraftKings +1.5 +114 −1.5 -137
ESPN BET +1.5 +110 −1.5 -130
Fanatics +1.5 +115 −1.5 -140
FanDuel +1.5 +105 −1.5 -126
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +110 −1.5 -130
Caesars +1.5 +115 −1.5 -135
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -102 8.5 -118
BetRivers 8.5 -105 8.5 -117
DraftKings 8.5 -103 8.5 -117
ESPN BET 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
Fanatics 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
FanDuel 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Caesars 8.5 +105 8.5 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.2% 71.8%
Best book price incl. vig 29.2% 72.6%
Kalshi contract price 28.2% 71.8%
Polymarket contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Markets average 28.3% 71.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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