Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

MLB · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 7:05 PM

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 74.6%
Books consensus 74.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
DraftKings +277 -354
ESPN BET +280 -360
Fanatics +275 -350
FanDuel +270 -335
Caesars +278 -355

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 25.4% 74.6%
Best book price incl. vig 26.3% 77.0%
Kalshi contract price 24.9% 75.1%
Polymarket contract price 25.5% 74.5%
Markets average 25.2% 74.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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