Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions
MLB · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 8:01 PM · Final: 5-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +155 | -177 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| ESPN BET | +160 | -190 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -190 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +125 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -144 | −1.5 +120 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -144 | −1.5 +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +122 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -118 | 7 -102 |
| BetRivers | 7 -118 | 7 -103 |
| DraftKings | 7 -114 | 7 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -135 |
| Caesars | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.5% | 63.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Markets average | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.