Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions
MLB · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 5-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 |
| BetRivers | -115 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -119 | -101 |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +100 |
| Fanatics | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Guardians | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | −1.5 +148 | +1.5 -182 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +139 | +1.5 -168 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -175 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +136 | +1.5 -164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -113 | 7.5 -107 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.5% | 49.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 52.5% | 47.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.