Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
MLB · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 4:11 PM
The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 62.8%
Books consensus 62.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +157 | -192 |
| ESPN BET | +160 | -190 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +164 | -196 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.7% | 65.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Markets average | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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