Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersNew York Yankees
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -114 +100
DraftKings -114 -105
ESPN BET -110 +100
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -112 -104
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -110 -110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 40.1% to cover · 8 books
New York Yankees covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 51.1% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 9 (3 scored)
Spread by book DodgersYankees
BetMGM −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
BetRivers −1.5 +138 +1.5 -167
DraftKings −1.5 +138 +1.5 -167
ESPN BET −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Fanatics −1.5 +135 +1.5 -165
FanDuel −1.5 +146 +1.5 -178
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
Caesars −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -115 9 -105
BetRivers 9 -117 9 -103
DraftKings 9 -112 9 -108
ESPN BET 9.5 +115 9.5 -135
Fanatics 9 -115 9 -105
FanDuel 9 -114 9 -106
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -140 8.5 +115
Caesars 9 -115 9 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 52.4% 50.0%
Polymarket contract price 51.5% 48.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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