Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 3:08 PM · Final: 3-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +118 | -142 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +148 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -186 | −1.5 +153 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -194 | −1.5 +158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8 -127 | 8 -113 |
| DraftKings | 8 -118 | 8 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.8% | 56.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.