Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

All New York Yankees predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions

MLB · Monday, September 14, 2026 · 7:41 PM

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 56.0%
Books consensus 56.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New York YankeesMinnesota Twins
BetMGM -145 +118
BetRivers -141 +118
DraftKings -142 +118
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -138 +118
Hard Rock Bet -140 +115
Caesars -140 +118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New York YankeesMinnesota Twins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.0% 44.0%
Best book price incl. vig 58.0% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 56.2% 43.8%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 55.8% 44.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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