Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 6:40 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 66.0%
Books consensus 66.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -220 | +180 |
| DraftKings | -225 | +183 |
| ESPN BET | -215 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -220 | +184 |
| Caesars | -225 | +185 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 68.3% | 35.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Markets average | 65.0% | 35.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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