New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
All New York Yankees predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 7:40 PM
The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -185 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -181 | +149 |
| ESPN BET | -175 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -180 | +152 |
| Caesars | -178 | +150 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 63.6% | 39.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Markets average | 61.0% | 39.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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