New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
All New York Yankees predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 1:41 PM · Final: 4-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -185 | +154 |
| BetRivers | -177 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| ESPN BET | -175 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -176 | +148 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -175 | +145 |
| Caesars | -190 | +158 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | −1.5 -103 | +1.5 -120 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -122 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -108 | +1.5 -111 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -115 | +1.5 -105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -118 |
| BetRivers | 8 -118 | 8 -120 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -107 | 8.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -134 | 7.5 +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.0% | 38.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| Markets average | 62.5% | 37.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.