Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 5-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -132 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -132 | +110 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -155 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +128 | +1.5 -159 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -157 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +134 | +1.5 -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -155 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -102 | 7.5 -118 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -103 | 7.5 -120 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -102 | 7.5 -118 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -104 | 7.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 56.5% | 46.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Markets average | 55.5% | 44.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.