Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Houston Astros predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 5-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +140 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -170 |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +140 | -164 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Royals | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +123 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -149 | −1.5 +124 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +129 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 9 -118 | 9 -122 |
| DraftKings | 9 -103 | 9 -117 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -124 | 8.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -121 | 8.5 +103 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.5% | 61.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.