Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
All Chicago White Sox predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 3-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +143 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +130 | -157 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -150 |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +133 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +144 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +145 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +143 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -102 | 7 -118 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -122 | 6.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -128 | 6.5 +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.2% | 60.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.