Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 12:36 PM
The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 54.5%
Books consensus 54.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -132 | +112 |
| Caesars | -132 | +113 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 56.5% | 46.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Markets average | 55.9% | 44.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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