Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 12:41 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -172 | +141 |
| ESPN BET | -170 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -168 | +142 |
| Caesars | -170 | +144 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.7% | 40.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| Polymarket contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Markets average | 60.6% | 39.4% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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