Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Friday, September 18, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 61.4%
Books consensus 61.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +148 | -179 |
| ESPN BET | +150 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -180 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.8% | 63.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Markets average | 37.7% | 62.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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