San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 7-0
The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 62.6%
Books consensus 62.6%
Result San Francisco Giants won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +170 | -195 |
| DraftKings | +155 | -188 |
| ESPN BET | +155 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -190 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.0% | 64.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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