Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions

MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 5-2

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 57.7%
Books consensus 57.7%
Result Minnesota Twins won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs
BetMGM +130 -155
BetRivers +123 -141
DraftKings +129 -156
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +124 -146
Hard Rock Bet +125 -150
Caesars +130 -155

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Cubs −1.5
priced 41.6% to cover · 7 books
Minnesota Twins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 11
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 11 (7 scored)
Spread by book TwinsCubs
BetRivers +1.5 -162 −1.5 +133
DraftKings +1.5 -156 −1.5 +129
ESPN BET +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Fanatics +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
FanDuel +1.5 -156 −1.5 +130
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
Caesars +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 11 -110 11 -110
BetRivers 11 -104 11 -115
DraftKings 11 -110 11 -110
ESPN BET 11.5 +105 11.5 -125
Fanatics 11 -110 11 -110
FanDuel 11 -110 11 -110
Hard Rock Bet 11.5 +110 11.5 -135
Caesars 11 -115 11 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.3% 57.7%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 58.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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