Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 5-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -121 |
| DraftKings | -101 | -119 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -103 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Royals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +166 | +1.5 -202 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +152 | +1.5 -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +162 | +1.5 -193 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8 -113 | 8 -125 |
| DraftKings | 8 -104 | 8 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -128 | 7.5 +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -122 | 7.5 +104 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.5% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 48.0% | 52.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.