New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks
All New York Yankees predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 4-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +105 | -126 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +101 | -118 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -220 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +163 | +1.5 -200 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -203 | −1.5 +166 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +172 | +1.5 -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +169 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -103 | 8.5 -118 |
| DraftKings | 8 -112 | 8 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +104 | 8.5 -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 8.5 +106 | 8.5 -124 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 47.0% | 53.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.