Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:37 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | -108 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +101 | -122 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | -102 | -117 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Royals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +169 | +1.5 -207 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -215 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +164 | +1.5 -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -195 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -197 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -107 | 8.5 -114 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -108 | 8.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -104 | 8.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -113 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.8% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.