Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:36 PM
The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 52.6%
Books consensus 52.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -124 | +103 |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.5% | 48.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 51.8% | 48.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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