Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions

MLB · Monday, September 21, 2026 · 7:20 PM

The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -108 -112
DraftKings -110 -110
ESPN BET -110 -110
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -108 -108
Hard Rock Bet -110 -110
Caesars -113 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.0% 50.0%
Best book price incl. vig 51.9% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Polymarket contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Markets average 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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