Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Monday, September 21, 2026 · 6:41 PM

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 55.1%
Books consensus 55.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers
BetMGM +115 -135
BetRivers +115 -137
DraftKings +112 -135
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +110 -130
Hard Rock Bet +115 -135
Caesars +112 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.9% 55.1%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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