Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Athletics

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 7-9

The model's call
Athletics to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Result Athletics won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -120 +100
DraftKings -107 -112
ESPN BET -110 -110
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -108 -108
Hard Rock Bet -110 -110
Caesars -107 -109

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Angels −1.5
priced 39.0% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9.5
priced 48.9% over · 8 books
Over 9.5 (16 scored)
Spread by book AngelsAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
BetRivers −1.5 +132 +1.5 -162
DraftKings −1.5 +152 +1.5 -185
ESPN BET −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
Fanatics −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
FanDuel −1.5 +146 +1.5 -178
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Caesars −1.5 +152 +1.5 -179
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9.5 -105 9.5 -115
BetRivers 9.5 -112 9.5 -109
DraftKings 9.5 -106 9.5 -113
ESPN BET 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
Fanatics 9.5 -105 9.5 -115
FanDuel 9.5 -104 9.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 -105 9.5 -115
Caesars 9.5 -107 9.5 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.0% 50.0%
Best book price incl. vig 51.7% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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