Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 7:40 PM
The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 65.5%
Books consensus 65.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +177 | -216 |
| Fanatics | +175 | -215 |
| Caesars | +181 | -213 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 35.6% | 68.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Markets average | 33.5% | 66.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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