Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 8-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +188 | -230 |
| DraftKings | +179 | -219 |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -200 |
| Fanatics | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +168 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +174 | -209 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +110 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -124 | −1.5 +102 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -132 | −1.5 +109 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +110 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -137 | −1.5 +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -127 | −1.5 +110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -122 | 6.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 34.7% | 66.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Markets average | 34.5% | 65.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.