Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 3-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +160 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| ESPN BET | +155 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +152 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +155 | -185 |
| Caesars | +154 | -182 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +118 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -148 | −1.5 +120 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -156 | −1.5 +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +125 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -122 | 6.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -121 | 6.5 +101 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -122 | 6.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.5% | 64.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Markets average | 37.2% | 62.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.