Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Athletics

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 3-7

The model's call
Los Angeles Angels to win
Model confidence 55.2%
Books consensus 55.2%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -148 +123
DraftKings -137 +114
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -134 +114
Hard Rock Bet -135 +110
Caesars -134 +114

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Angels −1.5
priced 44.0% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9.5
priced 47.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 9.5 (10 scored)
Spread by book AngelsAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 +115 +1.5 -140
BetRivers −1.5 +108 +1.5 -132
DraftKings −1.5 +118 +1.5 -142
ESPN BET −1.5 +125 +1.5 -150
Fanatics −1.5 +115 +1.5 -140
FanDuel −1.5 +116 +1.5 -142
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +120 +1.5 -145
Caesars −1.5 +121 +1.5 -141
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
BetRivers 9 -118 9 -121
DraftKings 9 -120 9 -101
ESPN BET 9.5 +105 9.5 -125
Fanatics 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
FanDuel 9.5 +102 9.5 -124
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +105 9.5 -125
Caesars 9.5 -102 9.5 -117

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.2% 44.8%
Best book price incl. vig 56.5% 44.8%
Kalshi contract price 55.5% 44.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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