Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 4-2

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 60.2%
Books consensus 60.2%
Result Washington Nationals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers
BetMGM +140 -170
BetRivers +150 -182
DraftKings +139 -168
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +140 -166
Hard Rock Bet +145 -170
Caesars +141 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.8% 60.2%
Best book price incl. vig 40.0% 62.4%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 39.0% 61.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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