Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 1:38 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 53.3%
Books consensus 53.3%
Result Baltimore Orioles won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +102 -122
DraftKings +106 -127
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +106 -124
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Caesars +107 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.7% 53.3%
Best book price incl. vig 47.6% 55.0%
Kalshi contract price 47.0% 53.0%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.2% 52.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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