Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 6:36 PM · Final: 2-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | +112 | -134 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -123 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +103 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Blue Jays | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -207 | −1.5 +169 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +172 | +1.5 -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -209 | −1.5 +177 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -113 | 7.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -107 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -106 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.2% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.