St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 12:36 PM · Final: 1-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +140 | -167 |
| DraftKings | +138 | -167 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +138 | -164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +136 | -159 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -171 | −1.5 +141 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +145 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| BetRivers | 7 -115 | 7 -124 |
| DraftKings | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -138 | 6.5 +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +115 |
| Caesars | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.7% | 60.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.