Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

All Miami Marlins predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 2:21 PM

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 63.9%
Books consensus 63.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Miami MarlinsChicago Cubs
DraftKings +168 -206
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +160 -190
Caesars +168 -200

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Miami MarlinsChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.1% 63.9%
Best book price incl. vig 37.3% 65.5%
Kalshi contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Polymarket contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Markets average 34.5% 65.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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