Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 1-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +175 | -215 |
| DraftKings | +179 | -219 |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 |
| Fanatics | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +176 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +170 | -210 |
| Caesars | +175 | -209 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -134 | −1.5 +110 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -126 | −1.5 +105 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +105 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -122 | −1.5 +107 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -118 | 7 -102 |
| BetRivers | 7 -129 | 7 -112 |
| DraftKings | 7 -107 | 7 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -145 |
| Fanatics | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +116 | 7.5 -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -135 |
| Caesars | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 35.7% | 67.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Markets average | 34.5% | 65.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.