Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 9:41 PM

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 63.8%
Books consensus 63.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +175 -215
DraftKings +163 -198
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +164 -196
Hard Rock Bet +165 -200
Caesars +169 -200

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.2% 63.8%
Best book price incl. vig 36.4% 66.1%
Kalshi contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Polymarket contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Markets average 36.5% 63.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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