Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Mets at Texas Rangers

All New York Mets predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 2:36 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 54.6%
Books consensus 54.6%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York MetsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +115 -137
DraftKings +110 -132
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +112 -132
Hard Rock Bet +110 -135
Caesars +106 -134

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York MetsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.4% 54.6%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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