Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays

All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 3:08 PM · Final: 5-1

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Cincinnati Reds won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cincinnati RedsToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM +135 -165
BetRivers +120 -148
DraftKings +140 -169
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +136 -162
Hard Rock Bet +135 -160
Caesars +137 -162

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cincinnati RedsToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.6% 59.4%
Best book price incl. vig 41.7% 59.7%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 40.5% 59.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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