Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 52.1%
Books consensus 52.1%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers -109 -110
DraftKings -101 -120
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel +102 -120
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Caesars -103 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.9% 52.1%
Best book price incl. vig 49.5% 52.4%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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