Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 3:10 PM · Final: 4-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | -109 | -109 |
| DraftKings | +101 | -122 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +100 | -117 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -177 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -196 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -194 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +159 | +1.5 -190 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 +100 | 8 -120 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -117 | 7.5 -105 |
| DraftKings | 8 -104 | 8 -116 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -122 | 7.5 +103 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.8% | 52.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.