Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche
All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions · All Colorado Avalanche predictions
NHL · Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 7:10 PM
The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 63.8%
Books consensus 63.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Toronto Maple Leafs | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| DraftKings | +164 | -198 |
| Fanatics | +165 | -200 |
| Caesars | +165 | -197 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Toronto Maple Leafs | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.0% | 66.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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