Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

All Dallas Stars predictions · All Colorado Avalanche predictions

NHL · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · 8:40 PM

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 57.2%
Books consensus 57.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Dallas StarsColorado Avalanche
BetRivers +116 -137
DraftKings +124 -148
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +126 -152
Hard Rock Bet +120 -140

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Avalanche −1.5
priced 36.2% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 54.3% over · 4 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book StarsAvalanche
BetRivers +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
DraftKings +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -192 −1.5 +154
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 5.5 -134 5.5 +108
DraftKings 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 6.5 +112 6.5 -138
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Dallas StarsColorado Avalanche
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.8% 57.2%
Best book price incl. vig 44.2% 57.8%
Kalshi contract price 45.1% 54.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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