Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

All Buffalo Sabres predictions · All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Buffalo SabresToronto Maple Leafs
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers -104 -115
DraftKings -102 -118
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +104 -125
Caesars +102 -121

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Maple Leafs −1.5
priced 32.8% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 51.8% over · 6 books
Spread by book SabresMaple Leafs
BetMGM +1.5 -235 −1.5 +190
BetRivers +1.5 -275 −1.5 +210
DraftKings +1.5 -245 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
FanDuel +1.5 -220 −1.5 +176
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
BetRivers 6.5 -113 6.5 -110
DraftKings 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -120 6.5 -102
Caesars 6.5 -118 6.5 -104

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Buffalo SabresToronto Maple Leafs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 49.0% 53.5%
Kalshi contract price 49.0% 51.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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