Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning

All Vancouver Canucks predictions · All Tampa Bay Lightning predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:09 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Model confidence 76.4%
Books consensus 76.4%
Result Tampa Bay Lightning won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Vancouver CanucksTampa Bay Lightning
BetMGM +310 -400
BetRivers +275 -400
DraftKings +310 -395
ESPN BET +270 -340
Fanatics +310 -400
FanDuel +290 -375
Hard Rock Bet +260 -400
Novig +365 -376
Caesars +305 -400

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Lightning −2.5
priced 46.5% to cover · 4 books, 3 on another number
opened Lightning −1.5
Vancouver Canucks covered +2.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 52.5% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book CanucksLightning
BetMGM +2.5 -120 −2.5 +100
BetRivers +1.5 +133 −1.5 -167
DraftKings +1.5 +136 −1.5 -162
ESPN BET +2.5 -135 −2.5 +115
Fanatics +2.5 -125 −2.5 +105
FanDuel +1.5 +128 −1.5 -158
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -130 −2.5 +105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
BetRivers 6.5 -108 6.5 -115
DraftKings 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
ESPN BET 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -124 6.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
Caesars 6.5 -128 6.5 +108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Vancouver CanucksTampa Bay Lightning
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 23.6% 76.4%
Best book price incl. vig 21.5% 77.3%
Kalshi contract price 21.5% 78.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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