Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks

All Dallas Stars predictions · All Chicago Blackhawks predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 4-0

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 65.7%
Books consensus 65.7%
Result Dallas Stars won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Dallas StarsChicago Blackhawks
BetMGM -220 +180
BetRivers -220 +180
DraftKings -218 +180
ESPN BET -215 +180
Fanatics -220 +180
FanDuel -215 +176
Hard Rock Bet -220 +165
Novig -203 +194
Caesars -213 +178

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Stars −1.5
priced 43.7% to cover · 7 books
Dallas Stars covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 55.1% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 5.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book StarsBlackhawks
BetMGM −1.5 +110 +1.5 -135
BetRivers −1.5 +120 +1.5 -148
DraftKings −1.5 +120 +1.5 -142
ESPN BET −1.5 +120 +1.5 -145
Fanatics −1.5 +120 +1.5 -145
FanDuel −1.5 +112 +1.5 -138
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +115 +1.5 -145
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -110 6 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -134 5.5 +108
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 6.5 +115 6.5 -135
Fanatics 6.5 +115 6.5 -140
FanDuel 5.5 -138 5.5 +112
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -145 5.5 +115
Caesars 6 -110 6 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Dallas StarsChicago Blackhawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 65.7% 34.3%
Best book price incl. vig 67.0% 34.0%
Kalshi contract price 66.5% 33.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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