New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
All New York Islanders predictions · All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions
NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 7:15 PM · Final: 4-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Islanders | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +120 | -143 |
| DraftKings | +110 | -130 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +105 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -140 |
| Novig | +113 | -117 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Islanders | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +180 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +185 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +180 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -235 | −1.5 +185 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -235 | −1.5 +186 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -230 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -130 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -125 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -125 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 +104 | 6.5 -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 6 -124 | 6 +101 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Islanders | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 53.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.