North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
All North Carolina Tar Heels predictions · All Duke Blue Devils predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 3:35 PM · Final: 24-20
The model's call
Duke Blue Devils to win
Model confidence 57.8%
Books consensus 57.8%
Result North Carolina Tar Heels won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +130 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +125 | -157 |
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +126 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -155 |
| Novig | +135 | -138 |
| Caesars | +131 | -154 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Duke −3
priced 49.7% to cover · 4 books, 3 on another number
North Carolina Tar Heels covered +3
Total · closing
O/U 46.5
priced 49.9% over · 6 books, 1 on another number
Under 46.5 (44 scored)
| Spread by book | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | −3 -108 |
| BetRivers | +3 -113 | −3 -110 |
| DraftKings | +3 -112 | −3 -108 |
| ESPN BET | +2.5 +105 | −2.5 -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | −2.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | −2.5 -125 |
| Caesars | +3 -110 | −3 -109 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 46.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 46.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 46.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 |
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