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Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 3:11 PM

The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 56.0%
Books consensus 56.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies
BetMGM -145 +118
BetRivers -141 +120
DraftKings -141 +117
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -142 +120
Hard Rock Bet -140 +115
Caesars -140 +118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.0% 44.0%
Best book price incl. vig 58.3% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 44.5%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 55.0% 44.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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