Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets

All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions · All Columbus Blue Jackets predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 6-2

The model's call
Columbus Blue Jackets to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Toronto Maple Leafs won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Maple LeafsColumbus Blue Jackets
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +130 -155
DraftKings +140 -166
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +138 -166
Hard Rock Bet +135 -165
Novig +147 -150
Caesars +135 -160

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blue Jackets −1.5
priced 37.8% to cover · 7 books
Toronto Maple Leafs covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.0% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book Maple LeafsBlue Jackets
BetMGM +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
BetRivers +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
DraftKings +1.5 -185 −1.5 +154
ESPN BET +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
Fanatics +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
FanDuel +1.5 -180 −1.5 +146
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
BetRivers 6.5 -110 6.5 -113
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +106 6.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 -105 6.5 -118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Maple LeafsColumbus Blue Jackets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.6% 59.4%
Best book price incl. vig 40.5% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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